ResearchPro's Actual Performance

[ResearchPro]

Numbers in the first message of the thread are updated with April results.

[Investar]

So 'Research', I finally did my homework on your Qtr 1 2009 report using my "just the facts" math package:

You began the year with $ 3,040.13 invested
In Jan/Feb/Mar you sold $    553.47
You ended Quarter 1 w/ $ 2,486.66 invested

$ 553.47 removed from "Dollars At Work" in the portfolio consisted of
$ 268.04 capital <LOSS> realized from charge-offs
$ 204.05 interest income (after fees) that you cashed out and put in pocket

Your loss exceeded your income by $ —63.99
Thus, you made no money and forfeited $64 in the transaction   
If this trend continues your portfolio performance will exceed —2.48 % in 2009

There is no chance your calc of "(+)10 %" will be involved. That's what my compoooter says.
Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future return.
 
 

[Investar]

Just an observation.
Of all the numbers you can play with, percentages are the easiest way to lie to yourself while telling the truth.

Day one the DOW goes from 8,000 to 8,500 and an exuberance of 6.250% is announced. Day two the DOW goes from 8,500 to 8,000 but our despondency is a mere 5.882%. The math used is the same in each case. And it tells me my 500 gain was more than my 500 loss. Well, I like that, I'm not back to zero after all.

And then we have the case of the same number applied two slightly different ways. I finally have a "late" in my portfolio. This is NOT reflected in my LendingStats number because he hasn't updated since. Eric's is current and includes it. And yet...
- my LendingStats "Experian ROI" remains at: 18.95%
- my Eric's "Experian Estimated" adjusted to: 19.32%

No question about it, I need more lates!

[deskguy]

No question about it, I need more lates!
-----------------------------
all you need to do is ask. i have plenty. i find, and havej always found, lendingstats hopelessly out of date. who/what is eric's?

 deskguy

[Investar]

... lendingstats hopelessly out of date. who/what is eric's?

Didn't you ask this before, dude? Here.....
http://www.ericscc.com/

.... Eric's aka Eric's CC aka Eric's Credit Community. Bookmark yourself before you 'loose it' again (grin, grin). By the by, looked you up. None too shabby! Not so sure you really have enough lates to share and share alike. I think you could easily get bids for a full portfolio trade from many.

[deskguy]

Didn't you ask this before, dude? Here.....
------------------------------
probably. my family asks the same thing, often; last month my heart-surgeon did the same. in short, i get that a lot. did i tell you i was 78?.

 deskguy

[ResearchPro]

So 'Research', I finally did my homework on your Qtr 1 2009 report using my "just the facts" math package:
... Your loss exceeded your income by $ —63.99

Yes, this is exactly right.

If this trend continues your portfolio performance will exceed —2.48 % in 2009

Obviously I count that this "trend" won't continue for too long.

There is no chance your calc of "(+)10 %" will be involved. That's what my compoooter says.

I think this is way too strong statement about this chance.

[ResearchPro]

And it tells me my 500 gain was more than my 500 loss.

Actually, it doesn't tell you that: those are different percentages not mentioning that generally speaking there is no additivity here - you have to log the values to make percentages additive.
However it tells you, that if you'd decrease your portfolio at 8500 to the amount you had at 8000, then your profits would indeed exceed your losses.

[Investar]

There is no chance your calc of "(+)10 %" will be involved. That's what my compoooter says.

I think this is way too strong statement about this chance.

Yeah, probably. Also, my math package considers only the period 01 JAN to 31 DEC, not the "rolling" results -- which is your intention. As I indicated before, your exercise is far more helpful in validating my approach then my exercise is to validating yours!

[ResearchPro]

May-09 performance is posted to the header message of this thread.

[ResearchPro]

Jun-09 performance is posted to the header message of this thread.

[Investar]

Jun-09 performance is posted to the header message of this thread.

I did my quarterly 'thing' for your portfolio ended Qtr 2, 2009. Year to date you have:
  $381.54 interest income against
  $477.08 in charge offs for
  $<95.54> negative total return or < 4.1% > year to date as adjusted for 'dollars at work' during the period (declining cost basis due to return of capital and charge-offs). My compoooter's prediction for the portfolio's success in 2009 adjusts to negative < 6.8% >.

edit/add My prediction gets more accurate as the year progresses. Again, I do not consider any results prior to the current year. My database does track income since the beginning.
Invested since: 07/23/08
Total Income 2009 began: 220.74
Total Income now          : 125.20   

[go4reward]

Based on the current ever increasing unemployment situation, I predict most of our returns are decreasing as time passes. I am still hanging in with the slightly positive return for my whole profolios. Hopefully it will not turn negative for all the loans combined.

[ResearchPro]

Sorry, I made an accounting mistake for June09 results, so I updated with corrected numbers.

[ResearchPro]

I did my quarterly 'thing' for your portfolio ended Qtr 2, 2009. Year to date you have:
  $381.54 interest income against
  $477.08 in charge offs for
  $<95.54> negative total return or < 4.1% > year to date as adjusted for 'dollars at work' during the period (declining cost basis due to return of capital and charge-offs). My compoooter's prediction for the portfolio's success in 2009 adjusts to negative < 6.8% >.

edit/add My prediction gets more accurate as the year progresses. Again, I do not consider any results prior to the current year. My database does track income since the beginning.
Invested since: 07/23/08
Total Income 2009 began: 220.74
Total Income now          : 125.20   

Yes, the first half of this year was exactly the time when most write-offs happen. So no wonder it's negative to correct the over-positive first months. However I do expect it to become better unless the crisis kills it.