SCP Prosper, P2P Lending, Investing, And Finance Forum

Ten more people decided not to pay!!!!!!!!!

Are there no prisons for these people?!?!?!?!!!!!!!!

No work houses?!?!?!!!!!

Humbug!!!!!!

 :D

That's really terrible, Doc, but I have a real fear that we are all going to see the same thing happening to our portfolios. I think the economy is giving borrowers a feeling, wrongly, that they don't need to pay 'because times are hard'.

IMHO, Dave

I am seeing more from my side too. That is why the quite period came at the appropriate time for the lenders.

it is possible some borrowers are taking advantage of the 'quiet period' to simply not pay, PERHAPS thinking the hiatus means they don't have to (no, i don't believe it either). i think this quiet period is unfortunate because conventional lending sources are drying up and we have plenty of money to lend. i have two 'lates' who didn't even make the first payment.

fyi, i told a loanio guy today that prosper allowed instant access to transferred funds and he was astounded. loanio ties up your cash for five or six biz days before you can use it. bidding is picking up on loanio - i haven't bid yet - but there are only about 40 listings and that hasn't changed in the past week. as it stands, i'd be very surprised if any of the loans were 100 pct funded but loanio allows partial funding if the borrower agrees.

 but no substitute for prosper.

 deskguy

I agree. Prosper is the best out there now. Unfortunately it is in quite mode now. The trend is against lenders now based on the fact that there are more troubles on the main street than ever before.

That is why is more important for borrowers to pay on time so their scores can keep up which translate into easier to borrow in the future. Or else lending is close to them for good.

So far I have no new lates aside from my one from last month. I am hoping all continues to go well.

Best to luck to all of us.

Foo

i'e got another paying off after only a month or so. sorry to lose the interest but it is better than lates or defaults. 

Good for you, deskguy. I will take payoff loans any time.

No lates for me so far... (knocking on the wood)

I was wondering the sae as Deskguy - if the quiet period is more the precipitant then the economy. I had three go late immediately after they announced the quiet period - one has since paid. It seemed ot me that some were thinking that Prosper was closing, or something similar, so perhaps they didn;t need to pay. I'm hoping a collections letter or two will snap them out of that.

 

I hope the collection letters will help to get some more DQs back to current too.

FinDoc, you have a lot of loans, so I believe those 10 is just an unlucky random fluctuation in your portfolio, but with 430 loans 10 lates is only about 2%, which is not really unlikely assuming 10-20% lates annually on average.

It seems to me(w/ my small (<50) number of loans) that the 'quieting' of Prosper has more of a precipitant of problems than the economic situation. Obviously, that's a gut feeling, as I have no hard info to back it up; bottom line will still be the same.

Dave

I have found that lates tend to increase during the winter and holiday times. Makes sense since we typically stretch ourselves the furthest. I don't think any borrower is using the "quiet period" excuse because it will affect their credit just as it normally would. I have also found sending a friendly request/reminder of the fact we are people and not banks that chose to help them pleads to their humanity. Sometimes it worked, but it definitely didn't hurt.

I hope that is the case for the reasons of being late. As far as friendly reminder, I thought it is not a Propser policy that we can contact the borrower. Isn't it true?

. As far as friendly reminder, I thought it is not a Propser policy that we can contact the borrower. Isn't it true?
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 you cannot write and demand payment. but jason advised me that you can write a polite email as a point of inquiry. i have three lates - one more than two weeks - and have written one e-mail to each that i thought very politely made my point without being demanding. i think one partial payment was subsequently made but the other two have been ignored. and none of the borrowers responded to me.

 personally, i don't think the time of year has anything to do with it. the first payments on all three loans all three loans were due in late october and that's quite a way from c'mas and the economic stress that brings. all three were also to sub-prime borrowers whose data suggested they had the money to pay. it is a case of will and the fact that all three were sub-primes is no coincidence.

 deskguy
   
.

I am getting more DQs each day. This is terrible. Good thing is that Prosper stops for now. Otherwise I would have more late DQs because more biddings.

are these sub-prime lates or higher quality? maybe you'd take fewer risks. i know i would. it is money, after all.
 deskguy

They are both subprime and high quality loans.

Fortunately all but one of mine have come current. That is one to someone in the contracting/construction industry so I shouldn't be surprised for a variety of reasons (mental note).
The ones of mine that went late have been just as much prime as not. One of them I did send a note asking for payment.

I don't think it is against prosper policy to contact them. It would be hard for them to claim this since they are providing the only way for us to do so most of the time. They do say that you cannot attempt to collect the money on your own which I interpret as demanding that they send money and making threats if they don't. Besides reminding them that we are people and not corporations I think it might help  to get a request that expresses understanding and says "please". I know in my limited dealings with collections people they tend to not ever do that.

sosocratic - i still have the same three lates, one each C D E. the C made a late payment a couple of days ago so perhaps my e-mail had an impact, but the other two have not responded to my e-mail or made a payment. this would have been a first payment for all. 
 
deskguy

I am getting late from AA, A, and B too now.

Still you are having above 9% ROI for all grades above E. Which is good.
P.S. And it looks like I will join you soon by having a late of my own...

I got more DQs as time goes.

one more paid off after two payments. one late paid up and one late in collections. not bad so far.
 deskguy

My 1 late has gone to collections after only 1 payment. I am not expecting to get much from it.

I only have 43 loans total so having only 1 late so far is really good. I am keeping my fingers crossed. I have been unaffected by the quiet period so far.

Foo

This is incredible stat. I wish I have the same stat as yours.

foofiter,

Are you still having the same luck?

taxesformuchlessinc

Well I now have 3 loans that have gone 2 months late. That is still better than I expected overall but in my mind they are written off. If I get some money from collections then all the better.

I currently have 1 payoff in progress and everyone else is current.

This would bring my default total to 4 out of 54 which is 7.41% of my portfolio (note wise, not dollar wise).

- Foo

Well I now have 3 loans that have gone 2 months late. That is still better than I expected overall but in my mind they are written off. If I get some money from collections then all the better.

I currently have 1 payoff in progress and everyone else is current.

This would bring my default total to 4 out of 54 which is 7.41% of my portfolio (note wise, not dollar wise).

- Foo
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i've three payoffs in the past week but still fewer payoffs than charge-offs. i'm barely at a profit on 155 initial loans.

That is really good stat on your loans, Foo.

As of right now I only have 2 loans more than 1 month late. A lot better than before.

22 of my 131 loans have defaulted which is 5.95% of all my loans.

I also have 3 loans that have been charged off that are making recovery payments. All of these charged off loans have been very recent (within 3 months).  I think these people were having a hard time making payments but are still trying.  Hoping the trend continues.

How is that possible?

Adds up to 16.8% by my calculation...

alas, i have 25 charge-offs among 155  total loans. also 23 payoffs. not good.
 deskguy

You all are right. Got my math a little backward.

Here's my breakdown:
Current   46   37.70%
<30 Late   2   1.64% (these will pay, they have a habit of missing the payment then paying 2 weeks later)
>30 Late   0   0.00%
Charge-off   20   16.39%
Paid   33   27.05%
Sold   21   17.21%
Total   122   

I haven't had a Loan Default since September 2008, so I'm hoping my criteria has settled down to where its dependable.  Most of my defaults came from Early Prosper (loans that originated in Dec 06-Feb07 prior to seeing most of the Credit Data...)

 my default count has been stuck on 32 for nearly a year.some possible encouraging news however is the fact that five of  my lenders have pre-paid or preparing to pre-pay their loans in the past 10 days.

 still have more defaulters than pre-payers but the  gap is closing. good news is good news.


 deskguy

 

Currently have:

37 Active Notes
33 Current
1 Past Due < 30 days (first time late /ruhroh)
3 Past Due > 30 days (2 in collections [Amsher has successfully collected one months payment in the last 2 months], other I see charging-off, last is a bankruptcy)
15 charged-off
11 paid in full

$5,500 worth of deposits since July 2008 and currently a net gain of $46.50 which includes the proceeds from 70 notes that were sold for between $1.00 loss and $7.00 gains (think I'm a little better than even on note trading, as I decided to "bail" in December when things started to look really hairy). My last loan will be paid in full July 2011 if my borrowers stay current. If no one aside the current lates default, I should irk out a meager 1-2% return over 36 months, if more default I will be negative...

BAEVentures

How long have you been in doing Prosper? My first year was about 10% return, now I am in the negative territory. But I am seeing the trend is heading into the right direction. I am getting less negative than earlier this year.

Most of my remaining loans were made in July 2008 until quiet period (Sept 2008). Approaching the 2 year mark as average age, although my Ericscc.com shows me as roughly 1 year because of all the notes I sold that they don't adjust for.

BAEVentures

I wish i can sell some of notes too.

My stats have definitely fallen since my last report:

Current: 41
Late (<30): 3
Late (>30): 4
Paid: 13

Charged off: 3

Only Good news is that one of my charge offs has made payments and one of my 30+ has also made payments. I have been getting some fairly regular early payoffs which I like too.

I am still well into the positive so I am ok with it.

- Foo

You should have ROI about 10%. Nice!